Outbreak 2020

Links:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309920301201?via%3Dihub#fig1
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

The Corona virus known as COVID-19 had 276 known cases on January 19th with 4 deaths and no recoveries.
We were initially told to be more concerned about the seasonal flu that had around 10,000 deaths at the end of January our of over a million infected. The lethality of the flu is 0.095% (or round up to 0.1%), where the COVID-19 was estimated to have a lethality of 2-4%, or 20-40 times higher than the flu.

COVID-19 has proven to be more contagious than the flu, and potentially 10x more deadly. It is far more contagious and as a result more lethal than swine flu. By comparison the swine flu had infected just a few hundred people by day 41 whereas COVID-19 had infected over 40,000. By day 212 Swine had infected 15.2 million and killed 73.4 thousand, or 0.5% lethality... 5x the flu.

We can calculate death rate or lethality one of two ways. The method used above divides the number deceased by the total infected, which might be appropriate after such outbreaks have ended. But during the outbreak, as new cases are still being identified, we might instead divide the number deceased by the number cured to find the 'outcome' lethality, since we don't yet know how many still infected will recover or expire.

As of 4/1/2020 (Source W.H.O.)

Infected: 887,067

Deaths: 44,264

Recovered: 185,541

Percentage of deaths (of infected): 5% (Rising)

Outcome Fatality (Deaths/Recovered): 19.3% (Rising)

Total Recovered (of infected): 20.9% (Declining)

Other Facts/info:

1. Common incubation period is 14 day, but many cases have seen 24 days and others as much as 27 days. This is the period of time where the infected host is not exhibiting any symptoms, but is contagious.
2. COVID-19 can survive on surfaces for as long as 9 days. So packages from China could be and unlikely but possible transport method.
3. ~80% of those infected exhibit little to no symptoms, the remaining 20% result in severe or critical symptoms. Some of these develop into pneumonia.
4. Symptoms include fever, cough, and difficulty breathing.
5. Unlike swine flu and other outbreaks in the past, COVID-19 is airborne and can be spread through sneezing or coughing. Those droplets can be breathed in, ingested, and even transmitted through the eye.
6. There are cases where the transmission source hasn't been identified. In the Italy outbreak it was traced to a man that has tested negative.
7. The virus can mutate, meaning you can catch it again, and again. There are cases where people have contracted it again after recovery for as much as 14 days... my info is not clear whether the person contracted the same strain again, a mutated strain, or merely relapsed with the same affliction.
8. An elderly person in Placer County CA with underlying health conditions was the first California to die from Corona. Update: This victim had traveled on a Princess Cruise out of SF, a ship that is now off the coast of SF after returning from Hawaii with 11 sick passengers and 10 staff who are being quarantined aboard the vessel.
9. There are now two strains of the disease, 7 in 10 get the more aggressive strain.
10. Children 10 and under seem particularly resistant, the most affected age groups are those over 50 years.
11. 3/4/20 Press conference, Mike Pence. Highlights: All state, federal and university medical labs can test for COVID-19; within a week independent labs will have validated testing capabilities (i.e. Quest Diagnostics); Elderly and Pre-existing ailments are highest rick (median age of Italians that became ill is 60, median age of those that succumbed is 81)
12. Union Mine High School in El Dorado County has notified parents that a student that recently traveled was exposed to Corona Virus. 
13. By comparison, the flu is expected to infect up to 45 million people this season, with an anticipated death toll of 18,000-45,000. A fatality rate of less than 0.1%, so if COVID -19 is 35x more lethal and just as contagious we could see a death toll of 6.4 Million in the US alone... on the conservative side, or nearly 16 million on the high side. STOP FRICKIN TRAVELING!!!!! Unless you have to go somewhere for work, or some need, don't travel. Buses, airplanes, trains, airports, hotels, and definitely cruises... these are the primary transport hubs of infectious diseases. COVID-19 is not the bug that wipes humanity from the face of the Earth but it has the potential to seriously put a dent in our elderly population. Don't panic, but take precautions!
14. March 8th 2020 data indicates that the number of new cases is accelerating once again. This I would expect as the disease spreads in new areas such as the Mid-East, Europe, and the Americas. From Friday the 6th to Monday the 9th, the US cases alone have jumped from 260 to 566. Inside China in the last 24hrs there have been 45 new cases and 23 new deaths. Outside of China there have been 3949 new cases and 202 new deaths. This is evident in the uptick for charts A and B below. China imposed heavy quarantines, disregarding pesky things like human rights in order to get the spread under control. They don't do this for the flu, an important point to keep in mind. Another important point is that Europe and the Americas don't have governments such as the one in China, with our rights and liberties, our governments will have a much more difficult job in containing the spread of Corona Virus, perhaps and impossible job.
15. Corona Virus of Corona Novella vs COVID-19. My understanding is that COVID-19 is the disease one gets from the Coronavirus. AN infected person has COVID-19, which is caused by Coronavirus.
16. US is at 800 cases and 28 deaths, adding a death in New Jersey and 23 in WA. 3.5% of US cases have resulted in Death thus far, and just 1% have recovered.

From the China/Asia outbreak the fatality percentage leveled off at around 3.4%. When the outbreaks in Iran, Italy and other places occurred this number again began increasing and has not leveled off yet. Most believe it will eventually decline and that ~3.5% will be close to what it resolves to. These numbers are pessimistic, as the number of unreported/unconfirmed cases where people are not very ill may be very high.

As new outbreaks occur around the globe we will see an increase in the daily new cases, not just numerically but also proportionally. The daily new cases was dropping as a percentage as China enforced sever quarantine efforts, but the trend has reversed as other nations begin tallying their confirmed cases. I would expect this to oscillate as one region gets a handle on the spread and as new outbreaks affect other regions.

Economic Impacts:

While we don't yet have a significant outbreak here in the U.S. most of the world's manufacturing, including ours, is centered in Asia, China in particular. Even if you manufacture here, there is a good chance that one of your component suppliers is in China. Kia and Hyundai in South Korea have been so affected. 

This means we will be impacted. If more of our manufacturing was domestic, we'd be less affected, hate to say it but Trump is right.

It is funny to me all the policy items that the Left are now struggling with, such as the manufacturing dilemma.

1. Domestic Manufacturing - something that since Trump has tried to help the Left has opposed

2. Border security - at present the Lefties are fairly quiet about restricting the flow of people in and out of the country. Initially we heard the media and some on the Left call Trump a racist for limiting travel to/from China (Idiots) but they're quiet now.

3. Single use grocery bags. Here in CA the grocery stores only carry reusable or paper bags, and you get charged for either. An effort to get us all to bring our own bags... now some stores are forbidding it out of fear that people will bring CoronaVirus into the store on the bags.

4. Liberals have been interviewed at gun stores in CA, purchasing firearms, wearing medical masks mostly to hide their identity. One shopper even asked the journalist not to use their name for fear of social repercussions from friends and neighbors. Apparently they now agree with 2A advocates on the subject of self-defense... it can take police a while to respond to a call, that is even if you are able to make one in time.